Government Faces Uncertain Future: This Week in Osaka October 25th to November 1st 2024

Each week, here at Osaka.com, we bring you a selection of some of the top stories about Osaka making the local and national news here in Japan. Sometimes it’s serious, sometimes it’s funny, but it’s always direct to you, from Osaka.

Here’s a look at some of the stories hitting the headlines in Osaka this week.

Next Government in Limbo After LDP Losses

Japan’s election results as presented in local media this week.

Osaka awoke to an uncertain future this past Monday morning. As the results of Sunday’s general election crystalized, the makeup of the next national government remained a mystery. All but the most conservative of political pundits predicted that the sitting government of the Liberal Democratic Party would take a hammering at the ballot box. However, few could have guessed just how massive those losses would be.

Even with the help of their junior coalition partner, Komeito, the LDP still don’t have enough numbers to make up a parliamentary majority. On top of this, even if they took the drastic and politically toxic step of inviting members removed after recent funding scandals back into the party, they still wouldn’t reach the magic number of 233 seats needed to form a government.

LDP’s Partners in Government Also Carry the Can

Komeito’s recently crowned leader now finds himself out of a job.

The LDP weren’t the only ones to suffer major losses on Sunday. Komeito, their coalition partner in the previous government, saw their leader lose his seat. In what seems to be a classic case of guilt by association, despite very limited influence on government policy, Komeito also bore the brunt of voters’ wrath.

Booking.com

However, their close association with the Buddhist organization Sokka Gakkai may also have hindered them. In the wake of the Unification Church scandal, after former PM Shinzo Abe’s assassination, public distrust of the links between religion and politics has reached a new high.

Opposition “Too Fragmented” to Form an Alternative Government

Tomoko Tamura became the JCP’s first female leader this year. However her party still remain as far away from government as ever.

Whilst not totally outwith the realms of possibility, the likelihood of an opposition led coalition government is extremely low. In order to woo disgruntled LDP voters, the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan altered their political stance on several issues. Under the guidance of recently re-appointed leader Yoshihiko Noda, the DPJ, traditionally a left of center party, has taken on a more centrist stance.

Whilst this gained them plenty of support in places like Osaka, where centrist voters make up the bulk of the population, it also had its drawbacks.

Leftist organizations like the Japanese Communist Party distanced themselves from the DPJ after what they saw as “an abandonment of left-wing principles”. Whilst a relatively small group within the lower house, it would be impossible for the DPJ to form a majority government without the JCP and other left of center allies.

On the other hand, the radical Nippon Isshin no Kai, who have a significant support base in Osaka has also ruled out a coalition with the LDP.

Nippon Isshin no Kai are something of a wild card, and possible kingmaker in this whole mess of government formation.

Though most identify them as a right of center party, they also share a lot of common ground policy wise with left wing parties. Their more radical policy platform certainly makes a conservative alliance with the LDP seemingly unlikely at the moment.

Minority Government The Most Likely Outcome

PM Ishiba faces an uphill battle to form a government, and keep his job.

For all their losses the LDP remain the largest party in parliament by quite a distance. So, in all likelihood, they will form the rump of the next government. One idea floated among commentators this week is the possibility of minority government. In the absence of a formal coalition, the LDP would instead seek to pass individual pieces of legislation on a case by case basis through agreement with opposing parties.

Whilst such consensus politics may seem like an ideal solution, it very rarely works out that way. Already, some of the more conservative elements of the LDP are calling for the removal of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Ishiba had only been in the job a matter of days when he gambled on calling this election. This failed gamble has left both him and his party in a greatly weakened state.

What People in Osaka are Saying About the Election

Could someone like Donald Trump be the future of Japanese politics? Some in Osaka seem to think so.

As for Osaka’s citizens, they seem just as confused by all this as the former government ministers are.

“I don’t like the LDP, but who can actually do the job better than them?” said one despairing voter.

“At the end of the day, the opposition spend more time bickering with each other than they do offering an effective check on the LDP.”

Another voter added: “Most of the recent scandals come from one thing: supreme arrogance and the feeling of untouchability that comes with it.

“The government did all of this, and the opposition largely let them get away with it, because no-one can challenge the LDP.”

One voter offered a more radical, if highly unlikely solution to the government impasse. He said: “What we need is a guy like Donald Trump. Someone who comes in, doesn’t care for manners or etiquette, just cuts through all that, and makes genuine changes.”

For all its flaws, the chances of the emergence of such a divisive figure, given the factional and often hereditary nature of Japanese politics, remain remote.

Still, with voter apathy at an all-time high and no sign of a return to stable government anytime soon, who knows what the future holds?

And Finally…

Gamba Osaka will aim to take home the Emperor’s Cup after reaching the final last weekend.

Whilst the government remains in chaos, at least one Osaka institution appears to have gotten its act together this week.

Gamba Osaka clinched a place in the final of the Emperor’s Cup last weekend, with a shock victory over high-flying Yokohama F-Marinos.

The Suita side edged out a 3-2 win in extra time, after a thrilling encounter that will live long in the memory.

With fans anticipating a palpitation-inducing penalty shootout, the hero of the hour, Isa Sakamoto struck the winner deep into added time at the end of the second extra time period.

Gamba remain the underdogs going into the final in Tokyo on November 23rd. The final will be an all Kansai affair, with Vissel Kobe beating Kyoto Sanga 2-1 in the other semi-final.

That’s all for now, but be sure to check back again same time next week for another round of This Week in Osaka!

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